Thoughts on Covid-19 reopening

As both Canada and the US begin to reopen business, in varying degrees, I am struck by how differently the many jurisdictions are dealing with the pandemic.  It doesn't help that data now tell us that the Swedish experiment (with people's well-being, I may add) has failed miserably.  On a side note, if that kind of failure happened at Etown, nothing will happen and the "administrators" will still get their excessive pay.  But in politics, I think there will be hell to pay in Sweden.

But never mind that.  I am a data kind of guy, as most of you know.  Here I am "stuck" in Ottawa because of the border closure, but in many ways I am very glad.  Let me elaborate.

The latest (early June) data show that in the province of Ontario, the number of daily new cases has fallen below 300.  Meanwhile, Maryland is registering over 800 new cases a day.  In PA, the number of daily new cases is around 500.

That itself is not necessarily alarming, since we know that the US has 8 times the population of Canada.  But that's a national total.  Ontario has a population of about 15 million.  PA has a population of about 12.  And MD has a population just over 5.

You can do the math.  That's what we do in BA416, no?  What is the data saying?  On a per capita basis, it's quite a disparity, no?

Some might think that more tests are done in some jurisdictions, so of course there would be more cases.  But according to Johns Hopkins, PA has done just over 4000 tests per 100,000 population, and MD has done just over 6,100 per 100,000.  In Ontario, just over 6,200 tests per 100,000 have been performed.

Not very comforting, is it?

One of the reasons, I think, is that Ontario took more stringent measures, and still do, than most states.  And people tend to be more conforming here.  So, as I survey the data, I do wonder if there is too liberal a reopening strategy south of the border.  And in Ontario as well!  What data we have are not very reassuring.  I don't get a sense that things are actually under control by any means.  And if so, what will the second wave be like?

Here in Ontario, we are also beginning to see gradual reopening.  Let's just hope that things won't spiral the way they did in Sweden.  Because if we think that last couple of months have been pretty horrid, what will a shit storm of a second wave be like?

Friends, wherever you are, stay safe.  Be well.  Your health is your most important asset.  Take care of yourselves!